In this month’s research spotlight, we highlight recent research from COSMOS that focuses on analyzing the dynamics of user engagement within pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian Telegram communities during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study was published and presented recently at the 13th International Conference on Complex Networks and their Applications. The study is titled, “Tracking Narrative Dynamics Using Churn Management on Social Networks”. This research explores the application of churn analysis to understand the propagation of competing narratives on social media platforms, such as Telegram during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Traditionally used in business contexts to study customer retention, churn analysis in this study is leveraged to examine user engagement trends within pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian Telegram communities. The researchers aimed to determine whether churn management strategies could effectively track community dynamics and evaluate the impact of user growth or decline on narrative dissemination.

By modeling user churn and narratives spread from Telegram channels, the study observed a significant change in the churn rate of the pro-Russian community, indicating a decrease in user engagement. Conversely, the pro-Ukrainian community experienced notable fluctuations in user engagement, suggesting a more dynamic interaction with the audience. Epidemiological modeling further revealed that pro-Ukrainian narratives propagated more rapidly than their pro-Russian counterparts, highlighting the effectiveness of churn analysis techniques in studying dissemination of competing information campaigns.

This research underscores the utility of churn analysis as a tool for monitoring and understanding the community dynamics on social networks, offering valuable insights into the mechanisms of information dissemination and the factors influencing user engagement during geopolitical conflicts.